It is hard to get one’s head round numbers like these.A 14% fall in gross domestic product. We’ve never seen anything like that in our lifetimes.Nor have we seen a 15% rise in gross domestic product – you have to go back to the earliest days of capitalism, the first decade of the 18th century, to see anything like this.Yet these are the numbers at the heart of the Bank of England’s latest scenario for how the economy might perform in 2020 and 2021 respectively.It’s worth emphasising that word “scenario” at the start. Advertisement This is not a forecast of the kind the Bank normally produces, with probabilities attached to outcomes, with fan charts and with a clear path for where it expects the economy, inflation, unemployment and so on to go, and there’s a reason for that.The scale of uncertainty is simply so high at the moment: producing even a “best guess” forecast would append a spurious illusion of certainty to the numbers. More from Covid-19 Coronavirus: Black people four times more likely to die with COVID-19 than white people – ONS Coronavirus: Government blames test target failure on ‘technical issues’ in labs Coronavirus: Trump calls outbreak worse ‘attack’… Read full this story
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